Michigan leans in favor of Elissa Slotkin

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Elissa Slotkin

66%

Probability

Mike Rogers

34%

Probability

Lean Democratic

PVIEVEN

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+3

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 19% fundamentals and 81% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals19%

Polls81%

Mike Rogers Favorability

How popular is Mike Rogers among Michiganders?

Oct 27, 12:27 PM EDTMichiganLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Unfavorable	52.20%	-1.2%	+3.5%
Favorable	37.40%	-3.5%	-3.0%
Unfavorable +14.8%
Unfavorable +14.8%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Elissa Slotkin	$51,937,060	$51,654,345	$24,035,344	$53,991,650	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Michigan US Senate

Watchlist

Social Media

Elissa Slotkin 66%

Michigan leans in favor of Elissa Slotkin

Forecast Components

Mike Rogers Favorability

FEC Data