John James is narrowly favored to win Michigan's 10th District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

John James*

57%

Probability

Carl Marlinga

43%

Probability

Toss Up

PVIR+2

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginR+1

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 41% fundamentals and 59% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals41%

Polls59%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Carl Marlinga	$2,954,055	$2,925,342	$2,895,495	$4,898,346	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Michigan US House 10

Watchlist

Social Media

John James* 57%

John James is narrowly favored to win Michigan's 10th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data