Frank Mrvan is likely to win Indiana's 1st District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Frank Mrvan*

89%

Probability

Randall Niemeyer

11%

Probability

Likely Democratic

PVID+5

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+8

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Frank Mrvan	$3,196,275	$3,162,106	$164,480	-	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Indiana US House 1

Watchlist

Social Media

Frank Mrvan* 89%

Frank Mrvan is likely to win Indiana's 1st District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data