Rick Scott is likely to win Florida

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Rick Scott*

78%

Probability

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

22%

Probability

Likely Republican

PVIR+2

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginR+5

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 20% fundamentals and 80% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals20%

Polls80%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell	$36,616,416	$36,641,694	$247,676	$8,579,903	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

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2024 Florida US Senate

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Rick Scott* 78%

Rick Scott is likely to win Florida

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data