Josh Harder is likely to win California's 9th District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Josh Harder*

92%

Probability

Kevin Lincoln

Probability

Likely Democratic

PVID+5

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+10

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Kevin Lincoln II	$2,278,918	$2,254,794	$39,075	-	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 California US House 9

Watchlist

Social Media

Josh Harder* 92%

Josh Harder is likely to win California's 9th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data