California's 47th District is effectively a toss-up

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Scott Baugh

50%

Probability

Dave Min

50%

Probability

Toss Up

Potential Flip

PVID+4

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginEven

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 37% fundamentals and 63% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals37%

Polls63%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Dave Min	$6,835,943	$6,662,877	$4,419,164	$8,554,674	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 California US House 47

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Scott Baugh 50%

California's 47th District is effectively a toss-up

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data