Kamala Harris is safe to win California's 54 electoral votes

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Kamala Harris

>99%

Probability

Donald J. Trump

<1%

Probability

Safe Democratic

PVID+14

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+27

Electoral Votes54

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 21% fundamentals and 79% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals21%

Polls79%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

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2024 California President

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Kamala Harris >99%

Kamala Harris is safe to win California's 54 electoral votes

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot