Arizona leans in favor of Ruben Gallego

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Ruben Gallego

73%

Probability

Kari Lake

27%

Probability

Lean Democratic

PVIR+1

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+4

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 20% fundamentals and 80% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals20%

Polls80%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Ruben Gallego	$69,417,128	$69,665,153	$24,262,275	$21,030,466	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Arizona US Senate

Watchlist

Social Media

Ruben Gallego 73%

Arizona leans in favor of Ruben Gallego

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data