Paul Gosar is safe to win Arizona's 9th District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Paul Gosar*

>99%

Probability

Quacy Smith

<1%

Probability

Safe Republican

PVIR+16

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginR+31

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Quacy Smith	$236,354	$213,624	-	-	TERMINATION REPORT	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Arizona US House 9

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Paul Gosar* >99%

Paul Gosar is safe to win Arizona's 9th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data